Estimated results after eleven months. Poland’s power engineering industry in 2007

2007 that the overall results will not be as good as one year earlier.
Output in the overall energy balance exceeded 166.9 TWh, that is barely 0.2% more than in 2006. Domestic consumption (including the production sub-sector’s own consumption) was nearly 2% higher, but consumption in the first quarter was smaller than in the corresponding period of 2006.
Production of electric energy in the country was about 2% lower, while imports of energy in 2007 were significantly higher and exceeded 8.6 TWh, amounting to about 180% of imports during the year before. At the same time, exports of electric energy were definitely down by about 17%.
For electric energy producers this was a year of smaller output and increased consumption by end consumers.
Power stations fired by brown coal generated almost 51 TWh, that is 5% less than a year earlier, while those fired by hard coal produced nearly 72 TWh, that is barely 0.4 % less than in 2006.
Heat and power plants fired by hard coal generated slightly more than 21 TWh, that is 0.5% less. Commercial gas-fired heat and power plants produced about 4% less electricity than in 2006. Commercial heat and power plants registered a 16% increase in output (it should however be noted that at 1.3 TWh, this figure is still rather insignificant in the total amount of electricity produced). The usage time of power capacity achievable jointly by thermal power stations and of heat and power plants was about 2.5% smaller.
The third quarter of last year allows for an assessment of the economic results of the power sector and sub-sectors after the distribution and sales operators had been spun off from the distribution companies’ structure. For electricity distributors the operating loss was PLN 97.8 million and the loss on sales exceeded PLN 189 million. For energy trading companies the operating profit exceeded PLN 52.5 million with the sales profit standing at more than PLN 67 million.
Assuming that the results of the first three quarters of the year after the spin-off procedure are not entirely reliable due to the speed and the way the process was carried out, it follows without doubt that distribution was until recently subject to straight subsidizing. It can be assumed from the results of the three quarters that electricity sales revenues of commercial thermal power stations will be about a dozen percent lower than in 2006. The same will be true for the transmission sub-sector, although the difference may reach one third.
The year confirmed forecasts that peak loads of the National Energy System will soon reach the present maximum production capacity of the generation sub-sector. Compared to 2006, the peak and minimum capacity loads in 2007 had increased. The first exceeded 24,600 MW in December while the latter oscillated around 21,000 MW in the summer. According to PSE-Operator SA, the year 2008 will be the first to register a definite shortage of power available from the National Energy System. This shortage will get worse in 2009 and 2010 (and that despite new investments in the industry).
This is a very serious signal for the government. Concrete decisions need to be taken to prompt the construction of new power generating units in place of those that have to be closed for lack of competitiveness and non-compliance with environmental standards (notably due to further restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions). Exchange of energy with abroad, first of all with the East, should also be considered.
As the new government has just begun work to amend the draft of Poland’s Energy Policy by up to 2030, one may expect that these decisions will be made in the first months of this year.
Herbert Leopold Gabryś
Apart from own sources, the author made use of materials from
ARE S.A. and URE (Energy Regulatory Authority)













