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Real estate market – executive summary

Wiktoria Grabowska
2008-02-15
The rapidly developing economy is not slowing down and the projected GDP growth may reach 6.3%-6.5% in 2007. The situation in the labour market has improved considerably – unemployment fell by four percentage points in the last 12 months as a result of the boom in the economy and Poles going overseas. The quick increase in consumption also translates into rising inflation which will at present remain at the level of 2.4%-2.8%. Poland attracted EUR11.5 billion in foreign investment in 2006 and it is estimated that in 2007 FDIs should exceed EUR10 billion. At present, the entire region of Central and Eastern Europe is developing dynamically and its average GDP growth reached over 6% in 2006.
REKLAMA

 Offices
The boom in the economy, driven by the increasing investments of foreign and national entities and strong domestic demand, have become factors behind the fast increase in demand for modern office space. According to preliminary estimates, the supply of office space throughout Poland should increase by approx. 800,000 sq.m. by the end of 2008, which constitutes over 20% of the existing office space. As much as two thirds of the new supply will be delivered to the Warsaw market. The modern office space market is still dominated by Warsaw, but the capital city’s dominance is being reduced in favour of the dynamically developing regional cities. Apart from cities which have already consolidated their presence on the office space map of Poland, new locations are also appearing, e.g. Łódź. The importance of locations such as Lublin and Szczecin will increase by the end of 2008.


Retail
In the first half of 2007 the stock of modern retail space in Poland amounted to approx. 6.7 million sq.m. (175 sq.m. per 1,000 inhabitants). The demand for modern retail space remains at a stable, high level concentrating on downtown shopping centres. There is an increased interest of tenants in shopping schemes in medium-sized towns of over 80,000 inhabitants. The diversification of rental rates for modern retail space continues to intensify depending on the city and its location.


Industrial
Poland has the most developed warehouse space market in Central and Eastern Europe. The modern warehouse space stock totals 3,150,000 sq.m., additional 1,100,000 sq.m. is under construction. Nearly 54% of the total stock is located in Warsaw, the capital city’s share is falling due to the booming development in regional cities: Poznań, Wrocław, Upper Silesia, Central Poland and Tricity.


Residential
The Polish residential property market is witnessing a rapid development, as the country is considered an attractive destination for residential investments. While the residential markets of major cities like Warsaw, Kraków and Wrocław demonstrate their continuing development, the emerging residential markets of regional centres, e.g. Tricity, Poznań, Łódź, and Katowice, tend to increase confidence of both developers and consumers. Despite certain factors facilitating new construction, the residential supply is not adequate to meet the high demand. The price growth in the market is expected to continue, however at a slower pace.

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