Central and East European aviation market liberalisation

A conference held by EastEuroLink in Warsaw gave some insights into how EU accession and market liberalization in CEE has affected local air carriers. The CEE market, it was noted, is one of the most dynamic in the world.

According to Aadu Lee, Secretary General at East European Air Transport Association (EEATA) the moods have gone from optimism in 2004 to dead pessimism in 2007 as only state supported carriers had a chance to make it through the legislative and other changes necessary to accommodate to EU regulations. Many small and medium-sized companies failed to reach compliance with EU rules and stopped their activity. However, even though the figures are looking optimistic, traditional big air carriers might be facing a crisis soon. As Michael Gaebler, CEO of Aviareps, said the only solution for traditional carriers is to radically change management to become more competitive.

Polish Market

ECONOMIC MONITOR

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• Debate on the 2010 budget bill began in Poland in September. It was preceded by the adoption of amendments to the 2009 budget law and the release by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) of the GDP growth estimate for the second quarter of 2009. Poland is the only EU-27 country to register a positive GDP growth in the second quarter.
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• Research on innovation activity shows that the share of businesses which introduced product or process innovations – new or significantly improved products or processes - in 2006-2008 was lower than in the previous period; in industry the share of such businesses was 21.3% and in the service sector 15.6%.
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• On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, stock prices were very volatile in September. At the end of the month, the WIG-20 blue-chip index and the WIG broad-market index were higher than at the end of December 2008 by respectively 22.50 pct. points and 38.02 pct. points.
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• GUS, NBP: In July the balance on the current account was negative at EUR-565 million against EUR-972 million in July last year, which represented an improvement by EUR407 million.
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• At the end of August 2009 the registered unemployment rate (claimant count rate) was at the July level of 10.8%. Employment in the corporate sector was by 2.2% lower than in August 2008.
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• In the eight months to the end of August 2009 budget revenue amounted to PLN183.4 billion, compared with the PLN272.9 billion planned under the amended 2009 budget law and PLN303.0 billion planned initially.
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WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS

Economic growth slows to 1.7% in 2009
Poland’s GDP growth slowed in 2009 to 1.7% from 5.0% in 2008. The figure was in line with our expectations and slightly higher than the market consensus. In Q4 the growth rate reached 2.9%-3.2% and was much higher than in the previous three quarters.

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