Visible changes are continuing on the Polish labour market. At the close of May 2008 registered unemployment was down to 10%, largely due to rapidly rising employment figures. In June employment in the company sector was 4.8% above the June 2007 figure, although it grew slightly slower than in earlier months of the year (5.9% in February, 5.8% in March and April, 5.4% in May). Wages in June continued to rise at a fast pace, closing at 12% above the June 2007 level (after a 10.6% year-on-year rise in May).

Skill shortages

NBP: Still high is the percentage of employers who find it hard to find skilled personnel – and staff in general. Also market surveys carried out by the National Bank of Poland in the 2nd quarter of 2008 showed that staff shortages were one of the main problems signalled by businesses, although no longer a mounting one. Labour exchanges report a renewed rise in unanswered job offers. (Source: NBP Inflation Report, end-June, 2008, www.nbp.pl)

NBP sees improvement on labour market

NBP: From early 2006 to the third quarter of 2007 rising employment and falling unemployment were accompanied by a decrease in the country’s economically active population (by 1.0% year on year in the 3rd quarter of last year). This trend halted in the fourth quarter of 2007, and by the first quarter of 2008 the economically active population had risen 0.9% year on year to 16,876,000. Also up in the first quarter of 2008 was the economic activity rate (by 0.5 percentage points to 53.7%). These changes may be a sign of growing labour supply in Poland, probably in result of less young Poles emigrating abroad for work and a rise in the percentage of economically active people of pre-retirement age. Surveys by both the Central Statistical Office and the National Bank of Poland indicate that demand for labour will continue over the second quarter of the year, especially in construction, trade and services, although the central bank’s economic forecasts are slightly below the previous quarter. (Source: NBP Inflation Report, end-June, 2008, www.nbp.pl)
June wage growth above May
NBP: Entrepreneurs maintain that the wage growth/labour productivity growth ratio is going down. Also surveys show that the current wage pressure may move from more efficient companies (who have largely raised pay) to less-productive units. Moreover, a clear majority of pollees report that two cuts in the disability contribution under the obligatory pension system (in June 2007 and January 2008) did little to ease pressure on wage hikes. On the other hand, National Bank of Poland surveys show that there are not too many firms in which rising wages would be the main motor of price hikes (4.8% of wage-hike-declaring firms in the 2nd quarter). Mounting wage demands in the public sector could be an additional driving force of pay hikes in the entire economy.
(Source: NBP Inflation Report, end-June 2008, www.nbp.pl)