Economist: Polish economy the only in Europe to grow

Poland is expected to be the only European country to note GDP growth (0.7%) this year, a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit quoted by Rzeczpospolita daily shows. Poland ranks sixth in the global economies ranking.

China is predicted to develop the fastest reaching 6% GDP growth. India with 5% expected GDP growth takes second place, followed by Egypt with 3.9%. At the other end of the scale are: Germany, whose economy is expected to shrink by 3.2%, Britain (3.1%) and Japan (5.3%).

In the following year Poland’s economic growth is expected to noticeably speed up. "The Economist" estimates that Poland will note a 2.2% GDP growth at the end of 2010. Inflation is expected to amount to 3% which is about 0.5% higher than the inflation target.

Polish Market

ECONOMIC MONITOR

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• Debate on the 2010 budget bill began in Poland in September. It was preceded by the adoption of amendments to the 2009 budget law and the release by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) of the GDP growth estimate for the second quarter of 2009. Poland is the only EU-27 country to register a positive GDP growth in the second quarter.
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• Research on innovation activity shows that the share of businesses which introduced product or process innovations – new or significantly improved products or processes - in 2006-2008 was lower than in the previous period; in industry the share of such businesses was 21.3% and in the service sector 15.6%.
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• On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, stock prices were very volatile in September. At the end of the month, the WIG-20 blue-chip index and the WIG broad-market index were higher than at the end of December 2008 by respectively 22.50 pct. points and 38.02 pct. points.
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• GUS, NBP: In July the balance on the current account was negative at EUR-565 million against EUR-972 million in July last year, which represented an improvement by EUR407 million.
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• At the end of August 2009 the registered unemployment rate (claimant count rate) was at the July level of 10.8%. Employment in the corporate sector was by 2.2% lower than in August 2008.
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• In the eight months to the end of August 2009 budget revenue amounted to PLN183.4 billion, compared with the PLN272.9 billion planned under the amended 2009 budget law and PLN303.0 billion planned initially.
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WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS

Economic growth slows to 1.7% in 2009
Poland’s GDP growth slowed in 2009 to 1.7% from 5.0% in 2008. The figure was in line with our expectations and slightly higher than the market consensus. In Q4 the growth rate reached 2.9%-3.2% and was much higher than in the previous three quarters.

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