The share of consumer goods in Polish exports increases

Central Statistical Office (GUS): In the three months to March foreign trade turnover was lower than a year before. Thanks to a smaller drop in exports than in imports, the trade gap narrowed. Trade turnover in zloty terms decreased with all groups of countries, except for developing countries. The share of agri-food products in total trade increased thanks to a faster growth in trade in these goods compared to the first quarter of last year. In imports, the share of investment goods and intermediary goods decreased while the share of consumer goods increased. (...) Trade with Central and Eastern European countries decreased the most. A slight increase in trade in zloty terms was recorded with developing countries. Exports to developed countries, including the EU, were decelerating at a slower pace than imports. As a result, the positive balance of trade with these groups of countries improved compared to a year before. The balance of trade with the remaining groups of countries was negative. (GUS, “Report on the Country’s Socio-Economic Situation, May 2009,” p. 4; www.stat.gov.pl)

Trade deficit narrows

Central Statistical Office (GUS): The value of exports in current zlotys was lower by 3.3% than in the first quarter last year and amounted to PLN99.4 billion; imports went down by 11.6% to PLN107.6 billion. The balance of trade was negative at PLN-8.2 billion, compared to PLN-18.9 billion a year before. Trade turnover in euro terms decreased by 20.3% to EUR22.7 billion on the exports side and by 27.0% to EUR24.6 billion on the imports side. The deficit amounted to EUR-1.9 billion versus EUR-5.2 billion a year before. In dollar terms, exports reached USD30.1 billion and were lower by 27.5%; imports were down by 33.5% to USD32.7 billion. The negative balance was at USD-2.6 billion versus USD-7.7 billion a year before. (GUS, “Report on the Country’s Socio-Economic Situation, May 2009,” p. 37; www.stat.gov.pl).

Main partners

Central Statistical Office (GUS): Poland’s trade with Germany, its main trade partner, rose slightly by 0.9% to PLN26.4 billion (EUR6.1 billion) in exports and decreased by 18.9% to PLN23.2 billion (EUR5.3 billion) in imports. Poland recorded a surplus of PLN3.2 billion (EUR0.7 billion) compared to a deficit of PLN-2.4 billion (EUR-0.7 billion). The share of Germany rose in total exports from 25.5% to 26.6% and declined in total imports from 23.5% to 21.6%. (...) After Germany, Poland’s main export partners were France (7.2%), Italy (7.0%), Britain (6.1%), Czech Republic (5.6%), Netherlands (4.4%), Russia (3.8%), Sweden (2.9%), Belgium (2.7%) and Spain (2.6%). The main import partners were China (10.2%), Russia (9.6%), Italy (6.6%), France (4.5%), the Czech Republic (3.5%), Netherlands (3.3%), South Korea (3.1%), Britain (2.9%) and the United States (2.7%). (GUS, “Report on the Country’s Socio-Economic Situation, May 2009,” p. 40; www.stat.gov.pl).

Agri-food exports grow

Central Statistical Office (GUS): Agri-food exports were higher by 22.1% compared to the first quarter of last year and amounted to PLN11,694.7 million (EUR2,669.0 milion). Imports increased by 15.9% and reached PLN9,507.5 million (EUR2,175.6 million). There was a trade surplus of PLN2,187.2 million (EUR493.4 million) compared to a positive balance of PLN1,369.6 million (EUR379.4 million) last year. The share of agri-food products in total trade increased from 9.3% to 11.6% in exports and from 6.7% to 8.8% in imports compared to the first quarter of last year. The increase in trade in agri-food products was recorded with all groups of countries. Exports to Central and Eastern European countries (for example fresh fruit to Russia and pork to Ukraine) rose by 50.3%, to developing countries (for example wheat to Egypt) rose by 46.0%, and to developed countries and the EU (for example tobacco products to France and beef to Italy) rose by 17.7% and 17.6%, respectively. Imports from Central and Eastern European countries (for example oilseed and turnip rapes and oilseed cake from Ukraine) rose by 24.6%, from developed countries and the EU (for example pork from Germany and Denmark) rose respectively by 18.4% and 19.9%, and from developing countries (for example fillets and other fresh, cooled and frozen fish meat from China) rose by 6.9%. In the geographic structure of agri-food exports, the share of Central and Eastern European countries increased from 8.8% in the first quarter of last year to 10.8%, the share of developing countries increased from 5.6% to 6.7%, the share of developed countries dropped from 85.6% to 82.5%, and the share of EU countries dropped from 81.7% to 78.6%. 93.3% of Polish agri-food exports was sold on the markets of developed countries and Central and Eastern European countries compared to 94.4% in the first quarter of last year. In imports, the share of developing countries dropped from 22.8% to 21.0% and the share of developed countries rose from 75.3% to 76.9%, with the share of EU countries going up from 68.3% to 70.7%. The share of Central and Eastern European countries rose from 1.9% to 2.1%. (GUS, “Report on the Country’s Socio-Economic Situation, May 2009,” p. 43 and 44; www.stat.gov.pl).

Current account surplus

GUS, NBP: In March the balance on the current account was positive at EUR75 million against EUR-1,960 million in the same month of last year. The current account balance improved mainly due to an improvement of the merchandise trade balance and a high inflow of transfers from the European Union, registered as current transfers. In March the balance of merchandise trade amounted to EUR-77 million, against EUR-1,470 million a year before. Receipts for merchandise exports amounted to EUR8,467 million, down by 16.3% year on year, and payments for imports decreased by 26.2% year on year to EUR8,544 million. The balance of services was positive in March at EUR125 million, against EUR167 million a year before. Receipts from service exports decreased year on year by 15.4% to EUR1,454 million. Payments for service imports decreased by 14.4% to EUR1,329 million. The balance on transport services was positive at EUR182 million, the balance on foreign travel was positive at EUR121 million while the balance on other services was negative at EUR-178 million. In March the income balance was at EUR-431 million, against EUR-1,051 million a year before, with receipts at EUR432 million (down by 20.7% year on year) and expenditure at EUR863 million (down by 45.9%). The balance of current transfers was positive in March at EUR458 million against EUR394 million a year before. Incomes decreased by 1.7% year on year to EUR879 million while expenditures by 15.8% to EUR421 million. (GUS, “Report on the Country’s Socio-Economic Situation, May 2009,” p. 52 and 53; www.stat.gov.pl).

Centre for Social and Economic Research CASE: The situation will be gradually improving

CASE: The exceptionally sharp drop in exports and imports noted in the first quarter of the year should not repeat itself because Poland’s external environment will be slowly improving. Thanks to the sharp weakening of the zloty in real terms, drops in exports will be increasing small. This factor was the main reason why exports slowed less than imports while the fact that recession is much milder in Poland than in countries which are its main trade partners would suggest the opposite trend. The current account was almost balanced in the first quarter, something which indicates that the current account deficit will narrow in 2009 to 2-3% of GDP from 5.5% in 2008. Despite the large decrease in net direct investment, the projection for the demand and supply of foreign currencies, i.e. balance of payments, suggests that supply will be higher than demand in 2009. As a result, the zloty should tend to be strengthening. The gradual reduction in the risk premium for investing in financial assets in our country will be supporting this trend. (CASE report, May 27, 2009; www.case.research.eu)