EBRD: Polish economy to grow 1.8% next year

Economists of the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) estimate that Poland’s economic growth this year will reach 1.3% and next year it will rise to 1.8%.

The bank also revised economic forecasts for countries in Central Europe and for the Baltic states. In these countries GDP is expected to fall by 3.4% in 2009 and next year it is expected to rise on average by 1.2%.

According to the bank’s experts the projection places Poland in a fairly good position against the situation in other countries of the region. Earlier forecasts published in May quoted 0% and 0.8% growth for Poland for 2009 and 2010, respectively. (PAIIZ)

Polish Market

ECONOMIC MONITOR

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• Debate on the 2010 budget bill began in Poland in September. It was preceded by the adoption of amendments to the 2009 budget law and the release by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) of the GDP growth estimate for the second quarter of 2009. Poland is the only EU-27 country to register a positive GDP growth in the second quarter.
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• Research on innovation activity shows that the share of businesses which introduced product or process innovations – new or significantly improved products or processes - in 2006-2008 was lower than in the previous period; in industry the share of such businesses was 21.3% and in the service sector 15.6%.
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• On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, stock prices were very volatile in September. At the end of the month, the WIG-20 blue-chip index and the WIG broad-market index were higher than at the end of December 2008 by respectively 22.50 pct. points and 38.02 pct. points.
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• GUS, NBP: In July the balance on the current account was negative at EUR-565 million against EUR-972 million in July last year, which represented an improvement by EUR407 million.
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• At the end of August 2009 the registered unemployment rate (claimant count rate) was at the July level of 10.8%. Employment in the corporate sector was by 2.2% lower than in August 2008.
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• In the eight months to the end of August 2009 budget revenue amounted to PLN183.4 billion, compared with the PLN272.9 billion planned under the amended 2009 budget law and PLN303.0 billion planned initially.
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WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS

Economic growth slows to 1.7% in 2009
Poland’s GDP growth slowed in 2009 to 1.7% from 5.0% in 2008. The figure was in line with our expectations and slightly higher than the market consensus. In Q4 the growth rate reached 2.9%-3.2% and was much higher than in the previous three quarters.

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