Polish industrial output on the up

According to preliminary data published by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), sold industrial output was in December 2009 by 7.4% higher than last year and 5.4% lower as compared to November 2009, after eliminating the influence of seasonal factors, industrial production was by 6.2% higher than in the corresponding month of 2008 and was 2.8% lower as compared to November 2009.

The increase in the sold production y-o-y was recorded in 24 (out of 34) branches of industry, including in the production of chemicals and chemical products (27.9%), motor vehicles, trailers and semitrailers (26.0%), paper and paper products (21.7%), rubber and plastic products (18.1%), computers, electronic and optical products (17.5%) and electrical equipment (15.9%). Decline in industrial output y-o-y occurred in 10 sections including pharmaceuticals (11.8%), machinery and equipment (4.3%), metal products (2.6%).

In the January-December 2009 period, sold industrial output was about 3.2% lower compared to the same period in 2008 (GUS)

Polish Market

ECONOMIC MONITOR

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• ● In December 2009 and January 2010, as in previous months in the second half of 2009, the Polish economy stood out against other countries in terms of GDP growth. Poland’s economic growth was higher than projected and higher than in other European countries.
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• In 2009 construction output increased by 3.7%.
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• Retail sales increase in most product groups.
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• On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, stock prices were very volatile in January 2010.
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• At the end of December 2009 the registered unemployment rate (claimant count rate) amounted to 11.9% versus 11.4% in November.
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• At the end of January the president signed the 2010 budget bill into law. The bill was adopted by the parliament on December 18.
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• In the fourth quarter of 2009 the Polish economy turned out to be more resistant to the global crisis than had been projected and than the economies of Polish neighbours, something which boosts optimism in forecasts for 2010 and the next years.
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WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS

Retail sales up again in June
Retail sales growth in nominal terms accelerated in June to 6.4% y-o-y from 4.3% y-o-y in May. The increase was higher than expected. In real terms, retail sales growth accelerated to 4.5% y-o-y from 2.0% y-o-y. June was a consecutive month with retail sales figures stronger than expected, which indicates that consumption is recovering after it slowed significantly at the beginning of the year. Private consumption is driven by an improvement on the labour market coupled with a rise in disposable incomes. In Q2 2010 retail sales grew by around 3% y-o-y in nominal terms and around 1% y-o-y in real terms. On the basis of retail sales and industrial production data, it can be estimated that the GDP growth rate was close to 3%.

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